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Economic Comment

The implications from the budget for interest rates? A faint thrust in the direction of fiscal tightening will have mollified Glenn Stevens to some extent but only around the edges. The federal budget was never going to be a major influence on near term monetary policy unless they decided to go double or nothing on $900 handouts, batts for burnouts and a second building education revolution.

The RBA will be more contemplative of the unexpected fall in jobs reported late last week, upcoming wage data, slumping consumer and business confidence, declining consumer finance numbers (mostly in housing), more ructions from Greece with the prospect of sovereign default within the EU, downward revisions to global growth and volatile corrections occurring in commodity prices. If the Cash Rate goes up in June or July, the RBA will have to be paralysed with fear over inflation and if that is the case, we reckon they will have gone at least three months too early.

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